May 2010, MoF delivered an annual speech on 2011 plan of  Central Government Budget in DPR. In the speech, MoF  projected that Non Tax Revenue, PNBP, item will experience a  decrease in the revenue.  

Fiscal Policy Office (BKF) is required a timely projection of  items in the Budget, that includes PNBP.  A  good short-run forecast model for PNBP is needed. This study try to make the model to see the relations of macroeconomic variables with non tax government revenue (PNBP) and try to estimate the impact of changes in macroeconomic assumptions to non tax government revenue for oil and gas sectors using Vector Autoregressive model.

Discussant: Ari Tjahjawandita